Value Plus

Arihant's Value Plus - January 2017



Market Outlook: Going ahead, the New Year will be challenging for Indian equity markets owing to post demonetization effects and continuing economic recovery in US leading to strengthening of US dollar. In the short term, the corporate earnings will be impacted due to fall in consumer demand and weak consumer sentiments. Timely rollout of GST will be positive for our country. The market has factored US Fed rate hike but if Fed will increase interest rates further at a faster pace as expected, it will increase FII’s outflows from India.

All the eyes will be glued on the upcoming Union Budget which will be unveiled on 1st February, 2017 and the outcome of the Uttar Pradesh state elections. Rumour mills are abuzz with news of possible hike on short-term capital gains or imposition of tax on long-term capital gains in the budget. This fear of taxation has created widespread uncertainty amongst market participants which will be only cleared once the budget gives clarification on this matter. Further, the dollar-rupee movement, movement in crude oil prices, foreign fund inflows, and upcoming corporate earnings are also likely to affect equity markets. We recommend investors to remain cautious and invest in fundamentally sound companies for long term perspective.

In this issue:

  • Movers & Shakers
  • Year Gone By- Key Economic Reforms
  • Market Outlook
  • Expert Corner: Fund Manager’s View on Indian Equities
  • Fundamental Stocks
  • Commodity & Currency Outlook
  • Mutual Fund
  • 7 Golden Rules to Stay Healthy & Wealthy

Technical Outlook January: On the monthly chart, we are observing a spinning top which gives small clue that the prior down trend is losing breath. The multi time frame analysis suggests that the monthly trend is down. However, looking at the weekly and the daily time frame a bounce from current level cannot be ruled out. 

Broadly, for current month 7995 – 7950 is a make or break zone. As long as Nifty holds these levels and at any time on the upside if it crosses 8197 on closing basis, then the bullish engulfing pattern formed on the weekly chart would get activated. In such scenario Nifty may test 8371 – 8483 – 8612 levels. Hence, trade with positive bias once Nifty trades and close above 8197. Stock specific activity is likely to continue.


Tags: Mutual FundMovers & ShakersCommodity OutlookMarket OutlookCurrency OutlookFundamental StocksExperts CornerEconomic ReformsGolden Rules


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DISCLAIMER: This document has been prepared by Arihant Capital Markets Limited (hereinafter called as Arihant) and its subsidiaries and associated companies. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase and sale of any financial instrument by Arihant. This document has been prepared and issued on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst meticulous care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and opinions given are fair and reasonable, neither the analyst nor any employee of our company is in any way is responsible for its contents and nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This document is prepared for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. All recipients of this material should before dealing and or transacting in any of the products referred to in this material make their own investigation, seek appropriate professional advice. The investments discussed in this material may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on the basis of this material. Arihant Capital Markets Ltd (including its affiliates) or its officers, directors, personnel and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have positions in, and buy or sell or (b) be engaged in any other transaction and earn brokerage or other compensation in the financial instruments/products discussed herein or act as advisor or lender/borrower in respect of such securities/financial instruments/products or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions.