Reports
View latest reports from the Arihant Research Desk. Daily News Analysis, daily market outlook, Value Plus for the latest happenings, investment ideas, model portfolio and market summary, mutual fund reports, ongoing IPO and NFO recommendation reports.

 

Daily Market Outlook

Daily Equity F&O Margin Report 30-09-2014 Download 166KB
Daily Equity F&O Margin Report 30-09-2014
Daily Market Update Report 30-09-2014 Download 629KB
Daily Market Update Report 30-09-2014
Daily Equity F&O Margin Report 29-09-2014 Download 166KB
Daily Equity F&O Margin Report 29-09-2014
Daily Market Update Report 29-09-2014 Download 646KB
Daily Market Update Report 29-09-2014

Value Plus – Monthly

Arihant's Value Plus: Sep 2014 Download 3MB
Arihant's Value Plus Sep 2014 Issue is now available. This month's issue contains - Market Roundup of Aug 2014 month, Domestic data releases, Auto sector review, Q1FY15 Results Update, Technical Nifty Outlook, Commodity Pick, Currency Outlook, Technical Stock Picks, Fundamental Stock Picks, Mutual Fund Roundup, Investors Q&A, From Arihant’s Blog - Preparing for Retirement Risks
Arihant's Value Plus: Aug 2014 Download 3MB
Arihant's Value Plus Aug 2014 Issue is now available. This month's issue contains - Market Roundup of July 2014 month, Domestic data releases, Auto sector review, Q1FY15 Results Update, Technical Nifty Outlook, Technical Stock Picks, Commodity Pick, Mutual Fund Roundup
Arihant's Value Plus: Jul 2014 Download 3MB
Arihant's Value Plus Jul 2014 Issue is now available. This month's issue contains - Market Roundup of June 2014 month, News update, Auto sector review, Technical Nifty Outlook, Technical Stock Picks, Commodity Pick, Mutual Fund Roundup

Ongoing IPO and NFO Note

IPO Note - Sharda Cropchem Ltd Download 424KB
Sharda Cropchem Ltd is a crop protection chemical company engaged in the marketing and distribution of a wide range of formulations and generic active ingredients globally. The company is priced at PE ratio of 13x the upper price band of Rs 156 and 12x the lower price band of Rs 145 on FY2014 earning. This seems reasonable; given the company’s strong balance sheet, healthy return ratios and earnings growth. Also, the offer price is at a discount to the comparable agrochemical companies in the industry (PE ratio is 25x FY2014 earnings). The company’s diversified business model with a clear focus on registration of molecules makes its business strategy unique as compared to its peers. We recommend investors to SUBSCRIBE for the IPO.

Commodity Reports

DAILY CURRENCY UPDATE REPORT RCH-DCR 30-09-2014 Download 354KB
DAILY CURRENCY UPDATE REPORT RCH-DCR 30-09-2014
Arihant - COMMODITY DAILY METAL BUZZ-300914 Download 173KB
Arihant - COMMODITY DAILY METAL BUZZ-300914
COMMODITY AGRI MARKET BUZZ DAILY-30-09-2014 Download 185KB
COMMODITY AGRI MARKET BUZZ DAILY-30-09-2014
Arihant - COMMODITY DAILY METAL BUZZ-290914 Download 170KB
Arihant - COMMODITY DAILY METAL BUZZ-290914
DAILY CURRENCY UPDATE REPORT RCH-DCR 25-09-2014 Download 366KB
DAILY CURRENCY UPDATE REPORT RCH-DCR 25-09-2014
COMMODITY AGRI MARKET BUZZ DAILY-25-09-2014 Download 171KB
COMMODITY AGRI MARKET BUZZ DAILY-25-09-2014
Arihant - COMMODITY DAILY METAL BUZZ-250914 Download 171KB
Arihant - COMMODITY DAILY METAL BUZZ-250914
Commodity Diwali Special Report-2013 Download 195KB
Commodity Diwali Special Report-2013
Copper - Mirror Image Download 131KB
Copper - Mirror Image

Stock Recommendation and Other Reports

Initiating Coverage - Coal India Ltd Download 307KB
We are initiating coverage on Coal India Ltd (CIL). The company is into coal production. The company has the distinction of holding largest coal reserves in the world and is also the largest producer of coal. CIL produces more than 80% of the domestic coal and enjoys the virtual monopoly in India. We initiate coverage with NEUTRAL rating on the stock.
Positional Call: VIP Industries Download 375KB
Positional Call on 15-09-2014 Buy VIP Industries at CMP 113 or on a decline upto 106 TGT 124-136-144 SL 98
Positional Call: Merck Ltd Download 369KB
Positional Call on 15-09-2014 Buy Merck Ltd at CMP 849 or on a decline upto 820 TGT 900-920-950 SL 800
Smart Call (Value Plus Sep 2014): Biocon Download 367KB
Buy Biocon at CMP 487.45 or on a decline up to 474 SL 460 TGT 520-560-580
Smart Call (Value Plus Sep 2014): Ultratech cem Download 390KB
Buy Ultratech Cement at CMP 2719.25 or on a decline up to 2650 SL 2555 TGT 2816-2900-3000
Tata Steel - Q1FY15 Result Update Download 291KB
Tata Steel’s result came better than estimates. At consolidated level revenues increased by 11% YoY. Our fair value, based on SoTP valuations, for Tata Steel stands at Rs 561 per share. At CMP of Rs 544 per share the stock is trading at FY16E P/E(x) of 9.8x and EV/EBITDA(x) 6.4x respectively. We recommend Hold rating on stock.
Hindalco Industries - Q1FY15 Result Update Download 227KB
Hindalco reported rise in its EBITDA margin to 9.4% from 8.2% on YoY basis largely due to decline in other expenses. We have valued investments at Rs 23 per share (25% disc to book value). Our SoTP value for Hindalco stands at Rs 200 per share and recommend HOLD rating on the stock.
Tata Motors- Q1FY15 Result Update Download 234KB
Tata Motors Q1FY15 consolidated net profit at Rs 5398 crore vs Rs 1726 crore on YoY basis. JLR continues to report strong numbers on better product mix and healthy volumes growth across geographies. We remain bearish on standalone business on account of expected continuing weakness in domestic automobile market. Our fair value for Tata Motors based on SOTP is coming at Rs 563 per share. We recommend Accumulate rating.
M&M - Q1FY15 Result Update Download 207KB
M&M’s Q1FY15 PAT was at Rs 882 crores vs 938 crores on yoy basis. We value M&M based on SoTP valuations and we have a “HOLD” rating on this stock: We value the core business at Rs 1,004 per share, based on 12.0x FY16E PE(x) based on EPS of Rs 83.7. We value total investments (listed and unlisted) at Rs 320 per share, with a holding company discount of 30%. Our SoTP value for stock comes at Rs 1,324 per share.
Maruti Suzuki- Q1FY15 Result Update Download 223KB
Maruti Suzuki’s Q1FY15 PAT was at Rs 762 crores, and PAT margin at 6.9%. The stock at Rs 2,618 trades at 22.7x and 16.4x our estimated EPS of Rs 115 and Rs 160 per share for FY15E & FY16 respectively. We value the stock at 18x FY16 EPS, and assign a price target of Rs 2,873 with a “HOLD” recommendation.
Hero Motocorp - Q1FY15 Result Update Download 248KB
Hero Motocorp PAT grew marginally by 2.6% to Rs 563 crs on YoY basis. The stock at Rs 2,603 trades at 14.1x our estimated FY16 EPS of Rs 165.5 per share. We assign a price target of Rs 2,648 at 16x FY16 EPS, and have “Neutral” rating on the stock.
Andhra Bank - Q1FY15 Result Update Download 238KB
Andhra Bank reported disappointing set of numbers both on the top-line front and bottomline. At current valuations we concede the stock is fairly valued, hence significant upside expectations remain dim in the medium-term. We recommend to Accumulate the stock with a price target of Rs 95 based on 1x P/ABV FY16E.
Positional Call: Buy Godrej Industries Download 323KB
Positional Call on 06-08-2014: Buy Godrej Industries above 345 CMP 343 SL 322 TGT 366-384
JSW Steel - Q1FY15 Result Update Download 285KB
JSW Steel’s Q1FY15 numbers were above expectations. JSW Steel continues to post strong performance in challenging operating environment. At CMP of Rs 1,182 per share, the stock is trading at FY16E P/E(x) and EV/EBITDA(x) of 9.0x and 4.9x respectively. We have valued the company at 6.0x FY16E EV/EBITDA and have arrived at the price target of Rs 1,480. We recommend BUY rating on the stock.
Positional Call: Buy Infosys Download 339KB
Positional Call on 05-08-2014: Buy Infosys at CMP 3465 or on a decline upto 3350 SL 3200 TGT 3600-3720-3800
JK Cement - Q1FY15 Result Update Download 245KB
JK Cement’s 1QFY15 operating performance was below estimates. Standalone EBITDA margins declined by 188 bps on YoY basis and stood at 12.5%.We have valued stock on EV/EBITDA of 7(x) its FY16 estimates and have arrived at a fair value of Rs 470 per share. At CMP of Rs 389 the stock is available at FY16E P/E(x) and EV/EBITDA(x) of 12.9x and 6.1x respectively at which valuations looks attractive in our view. We recommend BUY on the stock with a price target of Rs. 470.
Bank of Baroda - Q1FY15 Result Update Download 231KB
Bank of Baroda’s 1QFY15 earnings were largely in-line with estimates. Better performance came on back of strong NII growth during the quarter. Net interest income reported 15.2% YoY and 6.5% QoQ growth to Rs. 3,328cr. We have valued stock on P/ABV(x) of 1.0x on its FY16 adjusted book value of Rs 1,031 per share and recommend Accumulate rating with a target price of Rs 1,031 per share.
TVS Motor - Q1FY15 Result Update Download 175KB
TVS reported mixed set of numbers for Q1FY15. Volumes for the company grew by 18.1% while realisations increased by 10% on YoY basis. The stock at Rs. 143 trades at 12.4x our estimated FY16 EPS of Rs 11.5 per share at which stock looks over-valued in our view. We have assigned a price target of Rs 115 per share based on PE of 10x its FY16 estimates. Recommend ‘Reduce’ rating on the stock.
Ambuja Cements – Q2CY14 Result Update Download 221KB
Ambuja’s 2QCY14 result came above estimates largely driven by higher volumes and realisations. We have valued stock on EV/EBITDA of 9.5(x) its CY15 estimates and have arrived at a fair value of Rs 228 per share. At CMP of Rs 211 the stock is available at CY15E P/E(x) and EV/EBITDA(x) of 15.5x and 8.7x, respectively at which valuations look cheap in our view. We recommend HOLD rating on the stock.
ACC – Q2CY14 Result Update Download 374KB
ACC’s 2QCY14 operating performance came below estimates. Profit after tax declined by 6% YoY to Rs 241cr. We have valued stock on EV/EBITDA of 9.0(x) its CY15 estimates and have arrived at a fair value of Rs 1,387 per share. At CMP of Rs 1,460 the stock is available at CY15E P/E(x) and EV/EBITDA(x) of 18.3x and 9.4x, respectively at which valuations looks expensive in our view. We recommend REDUCE rating on the stock.
Yes Bank - Q1FY15 Result Update Download 214KB
Yes Bank reported lower than expected growth during the quarter. However, we expect momentum to come back on track in coming quarters. We believe, the business dynamics would continue to work in favor of YES bank, improvement in liability franchise, loan composition, consistent balance sheet growth, and superior asset quality. We have valued bank at 2.2(x) its FY15 adj book value and have arrived at fair value of Rs 605 per share. At CMP of Rs 545, the stock is trading at P/ABV(x) of 2.0x its FY15 adjusted book value of Rs 275 per share. We recommend Hold rating on stock.
Ultratech Cement- Q1FY15 Result Update Download 321KB
Ultratech’s (ULTC) 1QFY15 numbers were largely in line with the estimates largely driven by increased volume. During the quarter sales volume increased by 16% to 11.7 MT. We continue to value stock using EV/EBITDA(x) and have ascribed EV/EBITDA(x) of 10x to its FY16E EBITDA. Our fair value for Ultratech comes at Rs. 2,600 per share. We recommend ‘NEUTRAL’ rating on the stock.
TCS - Q1FY15 Result Update Download 209KB
TCS’s 1QFY15 performance was better than our and consensus estimates on revenue and operating margins front. TCS reported $ revenue growth of 5.5% QoQ and 16.7% yoy. We believe, TCS will continue to deliver stellar performance every quarter with consistent client wins and improving global economic scenario. We estimate FY16 revenue/earnings to record a CAGR of 17%/14.5%. We have valued stock at P/E(x) of 20x (premium to its peers) it’s FY16 EPS and has arrived at a fair value of Rs 2,557. Recommend ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock, post the run-up in the price.
Bajaj Auto - Q1FY15 Result Update Download 217KB
BAL Q1FY15 results were slightly below estimates but our long term view on the stock remains positive. BAL’s ambition of becoming global leader in motorcycle is reflected in its global sales and in our view BAL is inching towards its goal with every passing quarter. We assign a price target of Rs 2142, at 15x FY16 EPS of Rs 143 per share, and have a “NEUTRAL” rating on this stock.
Federal Bank - Q1FY15 Result Update Download 246KB
The Q1FY15 earnings of Federal bank, though not very impressive, were largely in-line with expectations. With advances growth remaining in 8-10% range coupled with subdued fee income we have cautious view. We have arrived at the price target of Rs 110 base on 1.2x FY16 ABV of Rs 92.
Indusind Bank – Q1FY15 Result Update Download 236KB
Indusind Bank (IIB) posted healthy growth both on the top-line and bottomline front. Net profit grew by 26% YoY and stood at Rs 421 crs. We recommend to HOLD with a price target of Rs 571 based on 2.5x FY16E ABV of Rs 228.5.

Weekly Reports

Weekly Metal Energy Outlook-29-09-2014 Download 215KB
Weekly Metal Energy Outlook-29-09-2014
WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK RCH-WCR 29-09-2014 Download 190KB
WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK RCH-WCR 29-09-2014
WEEKLY AGRI OUTLOOK 29-09-2014 Download 181KB
WEEKLY AGRI OUTLOOK 29-09-2014
Weekly Market Report - 29-09-2014 Download 814KB
Weekly Market Report - 29-09-2014
WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK RCH-WCR 22-09-2014 Download 197KB
WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK RCH-WCR 22-09-2014
Weekly Metal Energy Outlook-22-09-2014 Download 200KB
Weekly Metal Energy Outlook-22-09-2014
Weekly Market Report - 22-09-2014 Download 842KB
Weekly Market Report - 22-09-2014
WEEKLY AGRI OUTLOOK 22-09-2014 Download 183KB
WEEKLY AGRI OUTLOOK 22-09-2014