Reports
View latest reports from the Arihant Research Desk. Daily News Analysis, daily market outlook, Value Plus for the latest happenings, investment ideas, model portfolio and market summary, mutual fund reports, ongoing IPO and NFO recommendation reports.

 

Daily Market Outlook

Daily Equity F&O Margin Report 27-03-2015 Download 173KB
Daily Equity F&O Margin Report 27-03-2015
Daily Market Update Report 27-03-2015 Download 603KB
Daily Market Update Report 27-03-2015
Daily Equity F&O Margin Report 26-03-2015 Download 171KB
Daily Equity F&O Margin Report 26-03-2015

Value Plus – Monthly

Arihant's Value Plus: Mar 2015 Download 2MB
Arihant's Value Plus March 2015 Issue is now available. This month's issue contains - Market Roundup of February, Q3FY15 Results, Auto sector review, Technical Stock Picks, Nifty Technical Outlook, Currency Outlook, Mutual Fund roundup
Arihant's Value Plus: Feb 2015 Download 1MB
Arihant's Value Plus February 2015 Issue is now available. This month's issue contains - Market Roundup of January month, Auto sector review, Nifty Technical Outlook, Technical Stock Picks, Currency Outlook, Mutual Fund roundup
Arihant's Value Plus: Jan 2015 Download 2MB
Arihant's Value Plus January 2015 Issue is now available. This month's issue contains - Market Roundup of 2014, Domestic data releases, Auto sector review, Nifty Technical Outlook, Technical Stock Picks, Standard Portfolio 2015, Currency Outlook, Commodity Special Report – Anusandhan 2015, Mutual Fund roundup, 2015 Events Calendar

Ongoing IPO and NFO Note

IPO Note - Inox Wind Ltd Download 277KB
Inox wind is one of India’s leading wind power solution providers. The company is bringing the issue at price band of Rs. 315-325 (Rs. 15 per share discount to retail and Employee) at price/earnings (PE) ratio of 49.47x the upper price band of Rs 325 and 47.95x the lower price band of Rs 315 on FY2014 earnings. Valuations in our view are on higher side. High trade receivables resulting in negative cash flow from operations is our prime concern. We recommend long term investors to AVOID the IPO. Those who are looking for listing gains can subscribe to the IPO.
IPO Note - Sharda Cropchem Ltd Download 424KB
Sharda Cropchem Ltd is a crop protection chemical company engaged in the marketing and distribution of a wide range of formulations and generic active ingredients globally. The company is priced at PE ratio of 13x the upper price band of Rs 156 and 12x the lower price band of Rs 145 on FY2014 earning. This seems reasonable; given the company’s strong balance sheet, healthy return ratios and earnings growth. Also, the offer price is at a discount to the comparable agrochemical companies in the industry (PE ratio is 25x FY2014 earnings). The company’s diversified business model with a clear focus on registration of molecules makes its business strategy unique as compared to its peers. We recommend investors to SUBSCRIBE for the IPO.

Commodity Reports

COMMODITY AGRI MARKET BUZZ DAILY-27-03-2015 Download 191KB
COMMODITY AGRI MARKET BUZZ DAILY-27-03-2015
Arihant - COMMODITY DAILY METAL BUZZ-270315 Download 171KB
Arihant - COMMODITY DAILY METAL BUZZ-270315
Arihant - COMMODITY DAILY METAL BUZZ-260315 Download 175KB
Arihant - COMMODITY DAILY METAL BUZZ-260315
COMMODITY AGRI MARKET BUZZ DAILY-26-03-2015 Download 169KB
COMMODITY AGRI MARKET BUZZ DAILY-26-03-2015
Currency Outlook - 2015 Download 172KB
Currency Outlook - 2015
Commodity Diwali Special Report-2013 Download 195KB
Commodity Diwali Special Report-2013
Copper - Mirror Image Download 131KB
Copper - Mirror Image

Stock Recommendation and Other Reports

Management Meet Note – TCS Download 192KB
We believe TCS will improve its performance with consistent clients’ wins and improving global scenario from next year onwards. We have valued stock at P/E(x) of 20x to its FY17E earnings and have arrived at fair value of Rs 2,945. At CMP Rs 2,639 stock trades at 17.9(x) its FY17E earnings. We have ‘Hold” rating on the stock.
Smart Call (Value Plus Mar 2015) Download 435KB
Buy Hind Unilever at CMP 929 or on a decline up to 900 SL 890 TGT 975-1020. Buy Kotak Bank at CMP 1408 or on a decline up to 1375 SL 1360 TGT 1480-1520
Union Budget Highlights 2015-16 Download 149KB
Union Budget Highlights 2015-16
Railway Budget Highlights 2015 Download 119KB
Railway Budget Highlights 2015
Budget Expectation 2015 Download 343KB
Budget Expectation 2015
Mangalam Cement – Q3FY15 Result Update Download 218KB
Mangalam Cement (MCL) reported 3QFY15 result, which came below our estimates. Company reported net loss of Rs 2.4 crs vs profit of Rs 0.5 crs on YoY basis. At CMP of Rs 283 the stock is trading at EV/ton of $ 56, which is at a huge discount to its midcap peers. We believe MCL has a price potential of Rs 422 based on EV/ton of $75.
M&M – Q3FY15 Result Update Download 199KB
M&M’s Q3FY15 PAT was at Rs 942 crs vs 934 crs on yoy basis largely due to exceptional income of Rs 299 crs. We value M&M based on SoTP valuations and we have a “HOLD” rating on this stock. Our SoTP value for stock comes at Rs 1,319 per share.
Tata Steel – Q3FY15 Result Update Download 220KB
Tata Steel’s result was lower than estimate mainly due to lower realization on account of increase competition from Chinese players. Our fair value, based on SoTP valuations, for Tata Steel stands at Rs 380 per share. At CMP of Rs 358 per share the stock is trading at FY16E P/E(x) of 8.6x and EV/EBITDA(x) of 5.8. We recommend HOLD rating on stock.
Tata Motors – Q3FY15 Result Update Download 218KB
Tata Motors Q3 Standalone Net Revenue stood at Rs 9,056 crores, 16.6% yoy increase. We remain bearish on standalone business on account of company failing to gain traction even with launch of new models. We recommend to “Hold” with a target price of Rs 588.
TVS Motor – Q3FY15 Result Update Download 217KB
TVS reported decent set of numbers for Q3FY15. Volumes for the company grew by 23% while realisations grew by 4.4% on YoY basis. The stock at Rs. 293 trades at 24.5x our estimated FY16 EPS of Rs 12 per share at which stock looks little over its fair value in our view. We have assigned a price target of Rs 239 per share based on PE of 20x its FY16 estimates. We recommend ‘Reduce’ rating on the stock.
NMDC– Q3FY15 Result Update Download 215KB
NMDC’s earnings came in line with estimates at Rs 1,593cr. We have valued stock at EV/EBITDA(x) of 5.0 (x) its FY16 estimates and have arrived at a fair value of Rs 173 per share. Recommend “BUY” rating on the stock.
Andhra Bank– Q3FY15 Result Update Download 236KB
Andhra Bank reported good set of numbers both on the top-line front and bottomline. At current valuations we concede the stock is fairly valued, hence significant upside expectations remain dim in the medium-term. We recommend to HOLD the stock with a price target of Rs 95 based on 1x P/ABV FY16E.
Hero Motocorp – Q3FY15 Result Update Download 211KB
Hero Motocorp’s Q3FY15 PAT grew by 11.1% YoY to Rs 583 crs. The stock at Rs 2,830 trades at 16.2x our estimated FY16 EPS of Rs 175 per share. We assign a price target of Rs 3,140 at 18x FY16 EPS, and have “Hold” rating on the stock.
ACC -4QCY14 Result Update Download 303KB
ACC’s 4QCY14 operating performance came below estimates. Profit after tax increased by 16.4% YoY to Rs 324cr largely due to tax write-back of Rs 184 crs. We have valued stock on EV/EBITDA of 7.0(x) its CY16 estimates and have arrived at a fair value of Rs 1,673 per share. At CMP of Rs 1,511 the stock is available at CY16E P/E(x) and EV/EBITDA(x) of 11.8x and 6.3x, respectively at which valuations looks attractive in our view. We recommend HOLD rating on the stock.
JSW Steel – Q3FY15 Result Update Download 292KB
JSW Steel’s Q3FY15 numbers were below expectations on account of lower realisations and higher other expenses. We have valued the company at 5.5x FY16E EV/EBITDA and have arrived at the price target of Rs 1,200. We recommend BUY rating on the stock.
Smart Call (Value Plus Feb 2015) Download 451KB
Buy L&T at CMP 1735 or on a decline up to 1690 SL 1650 TGT 1800-1850-1893 Buy Shriram Transport Finance at CMP 1158 or on a decline up to 1120 SL 1075 TGT 1224-1276-1330
Bank of Baroda – Q3FY15 Result Update Download 235KB
Bank of Baroda’s 3QFY15 earnings were below estimates largely due to higher provisions for bad assets. We have valued stock on P/ABV(x) of 1.1x on its FY16 adjusted book value of Rs 191 per share and recommend HOLD rating with a target price of Rs 210 per share.
Techno-Funda Picks 29-01-2015 Download 222KB
Techno-Funda Picks - Whirlpool and Brigade Enterprises
Maruti Suzuki– Q3FY15 Result Update Download 217KB
Maruti Suzuki’s reported PAT was at Rs 802 crores a growth 17.7% on YoY basis, and PAT margin at 6.5%. The stock at Rs 3,685 trades at 31.3x and 21.8x our estimated EPS of Rs 118 and Rs 169 per share for FY15E & FY16E respectively. We value the stock at 21x FY16 EPS, and assign a price target of Rs 3,547 with a “Neutral” recommendation.
Persistent Systems – Q3FY15 Result Update Download 200KB
Persistent has delivered mixed set of numbers with top line growth of 4.2% qoq in dollar revenue. We have valued stock at P/E(x) of 18x to its FY16E earnings and have arrived at fair value of Rs 1,728 per share. At CMP Rs 1,726 stock trades at 18 (x) its FY16E earnings. We have ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock.
Ultratech Cement– Q3FY15 Result Update Download 223KB
Ultratech’s (ULTC) 3QFY15 numbers were largely in line with the estimates largely driven by increased volume. We continue to value stock using EV/EBITDA(x) and have ascribed EV/EBITDA(x) of 12x to its FY16E EBITDA. Our fair value for Ultratech comes at Rs. 3,430 per share. We recommend ‘HOLD’ rating on the stock.
KPIT Technologies – Q3FY15 Result Update Download 69KB
KPIT performance during the quarter was in line with our expectations. We have valued stock at P/E(x) of 12x to its FY16E earnings and have arrived at fair value of Rs 218 per share. At CMP Rs 211 stock trades at 11.6 (x) its FY16E earnings. We have ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock.
Hindustan Zinc – Q3FY15 Result Update Download 289KB
Hindustan Zinc’s (HZL) 3QFY15 performance was better than expected largely due to strong LME prices and higher other income (on account of mark to market treasury gains). We have valued stock on EV/EBITDA of 5.5x its FY16E and have arrived at fair value of Rs 178 per share. At CMP of Rs 162 the stock is trading at FY15E and FY16E EV/EBITDA of 5.0x and 4.7x. We recommend Hold rating on the stock.
TCS – Q3FY15 Result Update Download 212KB
TCS has delivered muted set of numbers with a top line growing marginally by 0.05% qoq at $3,931 mn. We believe TCS will improve its performance with consistent clients’ wins and improving global scenario from next quarter onwards. We have valued stock at P/E(x) of 20x to its FY16E earnings and have arrived at fair value of Rs 2,522 per share. At CMP Rs 2,532 stock trades at 20.1 (x) its FY16E earnings. We have ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock.
Federal Bank – Q3FY15 Result Update Download 236KB
The Q3FY15 Earnings of Federal bank was largely in-line with expectations. Federal bank continues to shine with advances growth picking up to 15% from 12% level in previous quarter coupled with strong other income growth. We remain positive about the prospects of the bank in the longer run and have price target to Rs 184 based on 2x ABV of Rs 92. We have ‘BUY’ rating on the stock.
DCB Bank – Q3FY15 Result Update Download 236KB
DCB recorded profit growth of 17% YoY to Rs 42.5 crs, however its PBT grew at a faster pace of 37% YoY to Rs 50 crs. DCB had a strong loan growth with superior asset quality; however we have valued DCB at discount to its peers because of higher proportion of retail deposits in total deposits. We value DCB at 2.75x FY16E ABV of Rs 53 giving a price target of Rs 146. We recommend to BUY the stock.
Indusind Bank – Q3FY15 Result Update Download 249KB
Indusind Bank (IIB) posted healthy growth both on the top-line and bottomline front. Net profit grew by 29% YoY and stood at Rs 447 crs. Strong loan traction, resilient asset book and superior liability franchise makes us positive on the bank. We recommend NEUTRAL rating with a price target of Rs 852 based on 3.75x FY16E ABV of Rs 227.
Techno-Funda Picks Download 284KB
Techno-Funda Picks: BEL and Marico
Techno-Funda Picks Download 391KB
Techno-Funda Picks: Canara Bank, Siemens, HT Media and Mangalam Cement
Infosys – Q3FY15 Result Update Download 202KB
Infosys has delivered good set of numbers with a top line growth of 0.8% qoq at $2,218mn. We believe Infosys deserve a re-rating thus we have assigned a higher PE of 19x (18.5x) to its FY16E earnings and have arrived at fair value of Rs 2,226 per share. At CMP Rs 2,074 stock trades at 17.7(x) its FY16E earnings. We have HOLD rating on the stock.
Fundamental Pick: Mangalam Cement Download 345KB
Fundamental Pick: Buy Mangalam Cement CMP: 314, TGT: 429
POSITIONAL CALL: BUY IDFC Download 357KB
POSITIONAL CALL 01-12-2014: BUY IDFC AT CMP 159.40 OR ON A DECLINE UP TO 145 SL 133 TGT 176-186-204
Initiating Coverage - Coal India Ltd Download 307KB
We are initiating coverage on Coal India Ltd (CIL). The company is into coal production. The company has the distinction of holding largest coal reserves in the world and is also the largest producer of coal. CIL produces more than 80% of the domestic coal and enjoys the virtual monopoly in India. We initiate coverage with NEUTRAL rating on the stock.

Weekly Reports

Weekly Market Report - 23-03-2015 Download 717KB
Weekly Market Report - 23-03-2015
Weekly Metal Energy Outlook-16032015 Download 211KB
Weekly Metal Energy Outlook-16032015
WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK 16-03-2015 Download 184KB
WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK 16-03-2015
WEEKLY AGRI OUTLOOK 16-03-2015 Download 179KB
WEEKLY AGRI OUTLOOK 16-03-2015
Weekly Market Report - 16-03-2015 Download 780KB
Weekly Market Report - 16-03-2015

Currency Reports

DAILY CURRENCY UPDATE REPORT 27-03-2015 Download 181KB
DAILY CURRENCY UPDATE REPORT 27-03-2015
DAILY CURRENCY UPDATE REPORT 26-03-2015. Download 350KB
DAILY CURRENCY UPDATE REPORT 26-03-2015.