Reports
View latest reports from the Arihant Research Desk. Daily News Analysis, daily market outlook, Value Plus for the latest happenings, investment ideas, model portfolio and market summary, mutual fund reports, ongoing IPO and NFO recommendation reports.

 

Daily Market Outlook

Daily Equity F&O Margin Report 17-04-2014 Download 165KB
Daily Equity F&O Margin Report 17-04-2014
Daily Market Update Report 17-04-2014 Download 628KB
Daily Market Update Report 17-04-2014
Daily Equity F&O Margin Report 16-04-2014 Download 166KB
Daily Equity F&O Margin Report 16-04-2014
Daily Market Update Report 16-04-2014 Download 628KB
Daily Market Update Report 16-04-2014

Value Plus – Monthly

Arihant's Value Plus: April 2014 Download 2MB
Arihant's Value Plus April 2014 Issue is now available. This month's issue contains - Market Roundup of March 2014 month, News update, Auto sector review, Technical Nifty Outlook, Technical Stock Picks, Commodity Pick and Currency Pick, Mutual Fund Roundup, Fund Recommendation: IDFC Premier Equity Fund, From Arihant’s Blog: Understanding the VIX, Special Hindi Article on Financial Planning.
Arihant's Value Plus: March 2014 Download 2MB
Arihant's Value Plus March 2014 Issue is now available. This month's issue contains - Market Roundup of February 2014 month, News update, Auto sector review, Technical Nifty Outlook, Technical Stock Picks, Commodity Pick and Currency Pick, Mutual Fund roundup, From Arihant’s Blog: 6 Reasons to invest in a SIP, Special Hindi Article on Insurance
Arihant's Value Plus: February 2014 Download 3MB
Arihant's Value Plus February 2014 Issue is now available. This month's issue contains - Market Roundup of January 2014 month, News update, Auto sector review, Q3FY14 Result Update, Technical Nifty Outlook, Technical Stock Pick, Fundamental Stock Pick, Commodity Pick and Currency Pick, Mutual Fund roundup, Going Global with mutual funds, Planning for Retirement at every life stage
Arihant's Value Plus Special Edition January 2014 Download 5MB
Arihant's Value Plus Special Edition January 2014 Issue is now available. This month's issue contains - Market Roundup of 2013, News update, Auto sector review, Technical view on Nifty, Technical Stock Picks, Fundamental Stock Picks – 2014, Currency Outlook for 2014, Commodity Special Report – Anusandhan 2014, Mutual Fund roundup, Knowledge center

Ongoing IPO and NFO Note

FPO Note - Engineers India Ltd (EIL) Download 154KB
EIL is a niche player in India’s engineering service segments, with strong credentials in energy sector. EIL’s performance in last one year was impacted by capex slowdown resulting into falling revenues, margins and profitability. However, future prospects looks encouraging from here on with ever increasing order book coming from increased presence in new markets and segments. We expect EIL to benefit incrementally from improved capex cycle in India. We believe margins at present are at bottom and should improve going forward. At upper level of price band stock looks reasonably valued in our view. Recommend subscribe to FPO.
IPO Note - Just Dial Ltd Download 177KB
Just Dial Limited (JDL), a 16 year old company is one of the leading local search engines in India that provides its users with information and user reviews from its database of local businesses, products and services across India. Their search service is available to users through multiple platforms that include internet, mobile internet, telephone (voice) and text (SMS).
IPO Note - Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd Download 164KB
MCX is the leading commodities exchange in India based on value of commodity futures contracts traded. It is the fifth largest commodity futures exchange globally, among all the commodity exchanges, in terms of the number of contracts traded… As of December 31, 2011, MCX offered trading in 49 commodity futures based on contract specifications… We believe given the strong earnings trajectory of MCX viz-a-viz global peers the IPO looks reasonably priced even at upper price band. We recommend subscribe to IPO.
NFO Note - Religare Monthly Income Plan (MIP) Plus Download 125KB
NFO Closes on 11 May 2010. The investment objective of Religare Monthly Income Plan (MIP) Plus is to generate regular income through a portfolio of fixed income securities, Gold ETFs and equity. We Recommend INVEST in the fund. Download NFO Note for complete details.

Commodity Reports

Daily NCDEX Margin Report 17-04-2014 Download 115KB
Daily NCDEX Margin Report 17-04-2014
Daily mcx Margin Report 17-04-2014 Download 111KB
Daily mcx Margin Report 17-04-2014
COMMODITY AGRI MARKET BUZZ DAILY RCH-CAM-00 17-04 Download 179KB
COMMODITY AGRI MARKET BUZZ DAILY RCH-CAM-00 17-04-2014
Arihant - COMMODITY DAILY METAL BUZZ-170414 Download 158KB
Arihant - COMMODITY DAILY METAL BUZZ-170414
DAILY CURRENCY UPDATE REPORT RCH-DCR 16-04-2014 Download 257KB
DAILY CURRENCY UPDATE REPORT RCH-DCR 16-04-2014
Daily NCDEX Margin Report 16-04-2014 Download 116KB
Daily NCDEX Margin Report 16-04-2014
Daily mcx Margin Report 16-04-2014 Download 109KB
Daily mcx Margin Report 16-04-2014
COMMODITY AGRI MARKET BUZZ DAILY RCH-CAM-00 16-04 Download 176KB
COMMODITY AGRI MARKET BUZZ DAILY RCH-CAM-00 16-04-2014
Arihant - COMMODITY DAILY METAL BUZZ-160414 Download 170KB
Arihant - COMMODITY DAILY METAL BUZZ-160414
Arihant - COMMODITY DAILY METAL BUZZ-150414 Download 169KB
Arihant - COMMODITY DAILY METAL BUZZ-150414
USD-INR Derivative Strategy Long Strangle for Dec Download 118KB
USD-INR Derivative Strategy Long Strangle for Dec 27-11-2013
Commodity Diwali Special Report-2013 Download 195KB
Commodity Diwali Special Report-2013
Long Strangle USD-INR Download 88KB
Long Strangle USD-INR 17/09/2013
USDINR OUTLOOK VALUE PLUS JULY 2013 Download 166KB
USDINR OUTLOOK VALUE PLUS JULY 2013
BULL CALL SPREAD USDINR Download 85KB
BULL CALL SPREAD USDINR
Zinc Value plus July 2013 Download 190KB
Zinc Value plus July 2013
Speical Report - Short Term Outlook USDINR- 28-06- Download 160KB
Speical Report - Short Term Outlook USDINR- 28-06-2013
Copper - Mirror Image Download 131KB
Copper - Mirror Image
Long Strangle USD-INR JULY 2013 Download 94KB
Long Strangle USD-INR JULY 2013
USDINR Outlook Next Update 12-06-2013 Download 257KB
USDINR Outlook Next Update 12-06-2013
USDINR Long Term Outlook 07-06-2013 Download 199KB
USDINR Long Term Outlook 07-06-2013
Special Report -JPYINR Download 258KB
Special Report -JPYINR
Golden-Bean 06-06-2013 Download 186KB
Golden-Bean 06-06-2013
Technical View Download 126KB
Gold one pager

Stock Recommendation and Other Reports

Positional Call - Lupin Download 351KB
Short Term Positional Call on 07-04-2014 Buy Lupin at 977.10 or on a decline up to 955 SL 942 TGT 1000-1036
Positional Call - Anant Raj Download 351KB
Short Term Positional Call on 07-04-2014 Buy Anant raj at 59.50 or on a decline up to 56 SL 52.50 TGT 64.50-68
Positional Call - Tata Chemicals Download 361KB
Short Term Positional Call on 31-03-2014 Buy Tata Chemicals at 289 or on a decline up to 282 SL 270 TGT 304 - 311 – 321
Positional Call - Glenmark Pharma Download 321KB
Short Term Positional Call on 24-03-2014 Buy Glenmark Pharma at 570.55 or on a decline up to 560 SL 549 TGT 590 - 605 – 624
Positional Call - Wabco Download 373KB
Short Term Positional Call on 10-03-2014 Buy Wabco at CMP 1957 SL 1745 TGT 2212-2360
Positional Call - Ultratech Cement Download 361KB
Short Term Positional Call on 05-03-2014 Buy Ultratech Cement at CMP 1877.55 SL 1813 TGT 1920-1950-2000
Positional Call - Godrej Industrie Download 360KB
Short Term Positional Call on 05-03-2014 Buy Godrej Industries at CMP 283.55 SL 270 TGT 292-304-312
Mahindra & Mahindra - 3QFY14 Result Update Download 205KB
M&M’s 3QFY14 reported EBITDA margins at 13.1% came higher than street estimates. We value M&M based on SoTP valuations and we have a “Hold” rating on this stock. Our SoTP value for stock comes at Rs 1029 per share.
SAIL- 3QFY14 Result Update Download 249KB
SAIL’s 3QFY14 numbers were largely in line with estimates with company reporting profit after tax of Rs 532 cr. We have valued stock on EV/EBITDA(x) of 5.5(x) its FY15E estimate and have arrived at a fair value of Rs 60 per share. At CMP of Rs 62 the stock is trading at EV/EBITDA(x) of 7.3x and 7.3x on its FY14E and FY15E estimates, respectively, at which stock looks expensive. We recommend reduce rating on the stock.
ONGC- 3QFY14 Result Update Download 159KB
ONGC’s 3QFY14 results came above estimates on lower operating expenses and write backs. PAT aided by better operating performance increased 28.8% yoy to Rs 7126 cr. We have valued ONGC on DCF methodology and have arrived at fair value of Rs 297 per share. We recommend Hold rating on the stock.
Hindalco Industries - 3QFY14 Result Update Download 167KB
Hindalco reported marginally higher numbers on better operating performance at its copper and aluminium divisions. Our SoTP value for Hindalco stands at Rs 99 per share and recommend reduce rating on the stock.
Tata Steel- 3QFY14 Result Update Download 272KB
Tata Steel’s result came better than an estimate which was driven by stellar performance from Tata Steel Europe (TSE). Our fair value, based on SoTP valuations, for Tata Steel stands at Rs 421 per share. At CMP of Rs 390 per share the stock is trading at FY15E P/E(x) of 9.3x and EV/EBITDA(x) 6.1x respectively. We recommend Hold rating on stock.
Tata Motors - 3QFY14 Result Update Download 156KB
JLR’s margins at 17.9% were boosted by richer product mix. Standalone business weakness continues, with a fifth consecutive quarter of operating EBIT loss. We remain positive on JLR’s business on better visibility and improved volumes of new launches. We remain bearish on standalone business on account of expected continuing weakness in domestic automobile market. Our fair value for Tata Motors based on SOTP is coming at Rs 391 per share. We recommend Hold rating.
NMDC- 3QFY14 Result Update Download 137KB
NMDC’s earnings came in line with estimates at Rs 1567cr. We believe stock is trading at near fair valuations of 5.0x and 4.6x its FY14E and FY15E EV/EBITDA. We have valued stock at EV/EBITDA(x) of 5.0 (x) its FY15 estimates and have arrived at a fair value of Rs 157 per share. Recommend Hold rating on the stock.
IGL- 3QFY14 Result Update Download 197KB
IGL reported 4% qoq decline in PAT at Rs 89cr (Rs 93cr) primarily on account of dip in operating profit. IGL continues to deliver stable volume growth and pricing power in weak micro economic environment. We believe company will benefit from MoPNG’s decision to reallocate gas CGD companies which can improve volumes and margins going forward. We have valued IGL at 5.5x EV/EBITDA(x) (average 1 year forward multiple of last four years) and have arrived at price target of Rs 318 per share.
GPIL - 3QFY14 Result Update Download 172KB
Godawari power and Ispat’s 3QFY14 result was better than estimates. GPIL continues to report stable operating performance every quarter. We continue to value stock on SoTP basis and have ascribed EV/EBITDA(x) of 5.0x to standalone operations and 4.0x to Ardent Steel and Hira ferro alloys. We have valued solar business at Rs 17 per share. Our fair value for GPIL stands at Rs 80 per share and we recommend Hold rating on the stock.
Andhra Bank - 3QFY14 Result Update Download 173KB
Andhra Bank reported disappointing numbers on every count. While net interest income (NII) recorded 17% qoq de-growth, profit after tax on the back of deteriorating asset quality declined 36% qoq. We have valued stock at 0.52x (based on Gordon growth model) its Adj FY15 book value and have arrived at a fair value of Rs 60 per share. We maintain Hold rating on the stock.
ACC -4QCY13 Result Update Download 242KB
ACC’s 4QCY13 operating performance came marginally ahead of estimates on higher volumes and better than estimated realisations. At CMP of Rs 1045 the stock is available at CY14E P/E(x) and EV/EBITDA(x) of 20.0x and 9.9x, respectively at which valuations looks expensive in our view. Recommend reduce rating on the stock.
Ambuja Cements -4QCY13 Result Update Download 176KB
Ambuja reported marginally lower than estimated revenues on higher than expected drop in realisations. We have valued stock on EV/EBITDA(x) of 9.5x its CY14 estimates and have arrived at a fair value of Rs 158 per share. Post recent correction we recommend Neutral rating on the stock.
Indian Metals & Ferro alloys-3QFY14 Result Update Download 186KB
IMFA’s 3QFY14 performance was largely in line with estimates. Profit after tax came in at Rs 11cr; which was 27% lower yoy. We have valued IMFA at EV/EBITDA of 4.5x its FY15 estimates and have arrived at fair value of Rs 247 per share. Recommend Buy rating on the stock.
Grasim Industries-3QFY14 Result Update Download 399KB
Grasim Industries’ operating performance came lower than estimates largely on account of higher input costs. At current market price of Rs 2574, Grasim Industries trades at a P/E(x) of 13.2x and 10.6x and EV/EBITDA(x) of 7.2x and 5.4x its FY14E and FY15E estimates, respectively. We recommend Hold rating on stock with revised target price of Rs 2782 per share.
Escorts Ltd-5QFY14 Result Update Download 156KB
Escorts reported subdued quarterly numbers due to lower contribution from non agri business. Company reported PAT of Rs 46cr, 62% higher yoy and 4.5% growth qoq. We are positive on tractor industry growth and forecast Escorts to benefit from product specific strategy aiming at increasing its market share. Recommend Hold rating on the stock.
Persistent Systems-3QFY14 Result Update Download 142KB
Persistent has delivered its Q3FY14 results with a QoQ growth of 2.2% at USD 69.9mn largely inline with our estimates. We have valued stock on 11.5x its FY15E earnings and have arrived at fair value of Rs 862 per share. We recommend Reduce rating on the stock.
GAIL-3QFY14 Result Update Download 191KB
GAIL’s 3QFY14 result was above estimates. Profit after tax during the quarter jumped 31% yoy and 83% qoq to Rs 1679cr largely on account of profit on sale of long term investments (Rs 345cr). We have valued GAIL based on EV/EBITDA(x) of 6.5x, its last four year’s average 1-year forward multiple, and have arrived at fair value of Rs 381 per share. We recommend Hold on the stock.
Maruti Suzuki-3QFY14 Result Update Download 178KB
Maruti Suzuki 3QFY14 reported PAT (post merger) was at Rs 681 crores, and PAT margins at 6.4% which was lower qoq due to drop in EBITDA margin. We value the stock at 14x FY15 EPS, and assign a price target of Rs 1842, with a “Hold” recommendation.
JSW Steel -3QFY14 Result Update Download 283KB
JSW Steel’s 3QFY14 numbers came largely in line with estimates. JSW Steel continues to post strong performance despite faced with challenging operating environment. Our target price for JSW steel comes at Rs 968 per share implying 4% upside from current levels. Recommend Neutral rating on the stock.
IndusInd Bank-3QFY14 Result Update Download 183KB
IndusInd Bank continues to maintain strong growth numbers despite faced with economic headwinds. Strong loan traction, resilient asset book and superior liability franchise continues to make us positive on the bank and we reckon IIB as a value pick in the private sector space. We have valued bank on 2.0x its FY15E book value and have arrived at fair value of Rs 443 per share. Recommend Hold rating on stock.
Infosys Ltd-Q3FY14 Result Update Download 154KB
Infosys has delivered its results with a top line growth of 1.6% QoQ at $ 2100mn. Company once again increased its FY14 revenue guidance. We strongly believe that Infosys will continue to post healthy operating performance going forward. Accordingly, we have upped our FY14 and FY15 EPS estimates by 6% and 9% respectively. We have valued stock on P/E(x) of 18.0x its FY15E earnings and have arrived at fair value of Rs 3816 per share. At CMP Rs 3549, stock trades at 19.4(x) and 16.7(x) on FY14 and FY15 earnings respectively. We maintain Hold rating on stock.
Management Meet Note - STFC Download 185KB
Shriram Transport Finance Co Ltd, established in 1979 and listed in 1999 is a part of Chennai based Shriram Group. It is the largest asset financing NBFC with assets under management of Rs 496.76 billion.It has a pan-India presence with a network of 539 branches, and employs 16,178 employees including 10,057 field officers. The company has built a strong customer base of over 9,50,000 customers.
Gold - Is “Yellow Metal” losing sheen? Download 175KB
Gold - Is “Yellow Metal” losing sheen?
Company Update - M&M Financial Services Ltd Download 304KB
One of the rural non-banking finance company, Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services Limited (MMFSL) with a strong parentage, aims to become one of the top rural finance brands. The company has moved at a faster pace in past few years and its AUM has increased to Rs 25645 cr at the end of Q3FY13. MMFS has registered strong asset growth, delivering an AUM CAGR of 33% over the past ten years (mostly uniform, except for the slowdown in FY08-09).
Initiating Coverage - Mahindra & Mahindra Download 549KB
M&M’s automotive business continues to be relatively well placed compared to automobile peers, we expect “moderate” improvements in the domestic auto cycle post H1FY14: M&M is well positioned in the SUV & LCV segments, which we expect will continue to outperform other segments like Cars & M&HCV’s. We believe that M&M’s a strong SUV product portfolio to tackle competition, but we have still factored a marginal tapering down in market share due to higher competition. With respect to the LCV space, we note that excess capacity and competition concerns are gradually building up. Expected hike in diesel prices post de-regulation might also have a downward effect on SUV and LCV volumes. We have factored M&M’s overall 4W automotive segment growing by over 15% over the next two years (albeit at a slower rate compared to FY13), led mainly by SUV volume growth.
Initiative Coverage Report - HDFC Bank Download 446KB
HDFC Bank, the second largest private bank (in terms of asset base) and the preferred provider for banking services, is expected to maintain the upbeat growth momentum both on the business as well as earnings front. The bank is expected to clock 28% CAGR on the bottom-line and 22% CAGR on the business front for the period FY12-FY15E. While most of the goodies stand priced in; we initiate coverage on HDFC Bank with HOLD rating on the stock for a target price of Rs 697 valuing the bank at 3X P/BV FY15E.
Arihant - Budget Expectations FY 14 Download 517KB
It’s that time of the year when the Finance Minister becomes the centre of attraction; his each move and each word is closely watched and analysed by the whole country… Arihant’s Research team attempts to run through the expectations across the sectors under coverage in light of the Union Budget for FY2014.
Special Report - Post Railway Budget FY13 Download 302KB
The rail budget of India has great significance for common man. The Indian Railways runs the third largest railroad network in the world spread over some 64,000 km, with 12,000 passenger trains and 7,000 freight trains each day from as many as 7,083 stations to ferry 23 million travelers and 2.65 million tonnes of goods daily.
Pre- Railway Budget 2012-13 - Stocks to Watch Out Download 278KB
It is that time of the year again when stocks in the railway segment start seeing some movement before the railway budget, in anticipation of some benefits, new orders and projects announced by the railways department. In fact, this has now become an annual phenomenon. The stock prices of companies catering to Indian Railways have already begun their annual rally ahead of the Rail Budget. So if you are looking to make some gains purely from a short term point of view, here’s a list a stocks we’ve identified.

Weekly Reports

WEEKLY AGRI OUTLOOK RCH-WAO 15-04-2014 Download 187KB
WEEKLY AGRI OUTLOOK RCH-WAO 15-04-2014
WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK RCH-WCR15-04-2014 Download 187KB
WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK RCH-WCR15-04-2014
Weekly Market Report - 15-04-2014 Download 913KB
Weekly Market Report - 15-04-2014
Weekly Market Report - 07-04-2014 Download 897KB
Weekly Market Report - 07-04-2014
WEEKLY AGRI OUTLOOK RCH-WAO 07-04-2014 Download 184KB
WEEKLY AGRI OUTLOOK RCH-WAO 07-04-2014
Weekly Metal Energy Outlook RCH-WMR 07-04-2014 Download 220KB
Weekly Metal Energy Outlook RCH-WMR 07-04-2014
Weekly Market Report - 31-03-2014 Download 902KB
Weekly Market Report - 31-03-2014